Next-study hypotheses
Stage 1 gives us a repair plan, not an explanation. Stage 2 must balance screens and test scope and causal reasoning separately.
Stage 1 shows what the next study must fix. It does not show why people made their choices. The two ideas below are plans to test, not findings from the pilot.
One idea for the next study is that clear scope may help people value causal questions.
This is a possible explanation to test, not a result from Stage 1.
The proposed Stage 2 tests clear scope and causal reasoning as separate parts in four combinations.
This is a proposed design. Its rules and sample size are not final.
Supported now
- Balance arm-by-position assignment before collection.
- Choose the main counting rule, pass/fail check, missing-data rule, and reporting rules before collecting data.
- Treat advisor identification as a separate construct from participant worth-ranking.
Testable next
- Supplying scope may change the value assigned to causal-structure questions.
- Supplying both scope and causal reasoning may have a different effect than supplying either one alone.
- An independent balanced collection may or may not recover a stable ordering.
Speculative horizon
Any path from better questions to better expert work, better research decisions, or wider use has many unmeasured steps. Stage 1 proves none of those steps.